How hidden risks in 'Watermelon Programmes' waste millions in effort

Transformation programmes that appear to be on track may be masking underlying risks and challenges, according to Sarah Conibear, CEO and Founder of Flux.

Conibear, who has more than 25 years of experience overseeing and recovering large-scale transformation initiatives worldwide, has highlighted the concept of "Watermelon Programmes" - projects that appear successful in status reports but harbour significant hidden issues.

She warns that organisations may unknowingly be wasting substantial amounts of shareholder or taxpayer value due to a lack of transparency and honest reporting in these initiatives.

Green on the outside

The term "Watermelon Programme" describes initiatives that, much like their namesake fruit, are green on the outside but red inside. Conibear notes that while dashboards and progress reports might look favourable, the internal reality often involves risk, misalignment, and confusion, threatening the eventual outcome.

According to Conibear, this phenomenon is not typically the result of intentional deception by teams. Instead, it is driven by systemic factors that incentivise positive optics over transparency about challenges.

"Transformation by definition is ambiguous and full of moving parts. When everything is reported as green, you're either looking at fantasy or fear," Conibear said. "The healthiest programs I've seen are transparent, well-sequenced, and led by people who value truth over theatre."

Cultural causes

Conibear points to workplace culture as a central issue. The pressure to maintain a 'green' status throughout a project lifecycle has, according to her observations, become ingrained in many organisations. This has repercussions for how challenges are surfaced and addressed.

"Behind every Watermelon Programme sits a culture that fears red," she said. "Leaders reward green dashboards, vendors are paid for green milestones, and nobody wants to be the one waving the red flag."

From Flux's work with clients across countries and sectors, there is evidence that project teams are sometimes more focused on regaining green status after a setback than on investigating and resolving the core issues.

"The most effective leaders reward transparency, not compliance," said Conibear. "They create a culture of truth-telling where amber and red are seen as opportunities to problem-solve, not punish."

Capability and planning

Conibear identifies another common thread in troubled transformations: capability gaps in strategic planning and critical thinking. She observes that the distinction between meaningful progress and mere activity is often lost, leading to rushed execution without sufficient alignment or forethought.

"Agile doesn't replace planning - it just changes how you do it," Conibear said. "Too often, I see teams use 'we're agile' as an excuse not to plan at all. The result is programs that look busy but move nowhere."

Without proper planning and a clear execution strategy, organisations risk constructing projects with weak foundations that cannot withstand changing demands or unforeseen obstacles.

Recognising the warning signs

Flux has outlined several indicators of a "Watermelon Programme" for leaders to monitor. These include a lack of underlying detail in status reports, sluggish decision-making processes reliant on infrequent committees, hesitancy among team members to seek help, the stigmatisation of problem reporting, and loosely sequenced plans that can mask real project risks.

Addressing the Watermelon Effect

Conibear advises that boards and executive teams can mitigate the risks associated with Watermelon Programmes by shifting their focus from status reporting to genuine problem-solving. She suggests encouraging early escalation of issues, streamlining decision-making to avoid unnecessary bureaucracy, implementing top-down execution strategies before delving into detailed planning, proactively establishing contingency plans, and fostering a culture that rewards transparency and learns from challenges.

"Every transformation hits red moments," says Conibear. "That's normal - it's where real learning happens. The goal isn't to stay green all the time, it's to tell the truth early and often enough to stay in control."

She adds that Watermelon Programmes, if unaddressed, can result in millions in wasted effort and frustration for organisations and taxpayers alike. Conibear concludes that consistently positive status reports should prompt deeper scrutiny from stakeholders.

Her message to boards and executives is: "Watermelons cost business and taxpayers millions of dollars in wasted effort and frustration every year. If your dashboards are always green it's time to start asking questions fast."