Credentials install base set to hit 11 billion by 2023

The worldwide installed base of both smart and legacy credentials will grow from 9.8 billion in 2018 to 11.5 billion in 2023, according to global tech market advisory firm, ABI Research.

With increased rates of international travel and government focus shifting to border control and security of citizen's data, significant regional and innovation trends are beginning to develop in the Government ID market.

The number of smart card shipments is forecast to increase from 618.8 million in 2018 to 732.7 million in 2023.

This growth is linked to many credential programs kicking off or ramping up in the forecast period and will see a shortening of the gap between legacy and smart credentials, with 44% of all world credentials in circulation in 2023 having a smart format, up from 37% in 2018.

National IDs will have a strong showing in shipment volumes, with 440 million units shipped in 2018, forecast to increase to 490 million in 2023.

Innovation in the market will primarily be driven by smart-card vendors Gemalto, IDEMIA, G+D (including Veridos), and Bundesdruckerei.

With a commanding 63.7% share of the smart card market in first half 2018, these vendors are poised to take advantage of credential migration opportunities for governments looking to overhaul legacy credentials and stay ahead of increasing credential standards.

"Vendors that are already well positioned and established within the Government ID market will be able to take advantage of innovative technological advances in citizen credentials to drive higher revenues and decrease production costs," adds Gazeley.

"The use of polycarbonate as a material can provide higher physical security features, and mobile and derived companions to physical documents provide a convenient solution to citizens while improving citizen-to-government relationships.

These findings are from ABI Research's Global Analysis of the Government ID Arena application analysis report.

This report is part of the company's Digital Security research service, which includes research, data, and Executive Foresights.

Based on extensive primary interviews, Application Analysis reports present in-depth analysis on key market and regional trends.