Australia data centre forecast flags phantom demand

Data Centres Australia and DC Byte have partnered to provide independent market intelligence on the Australian data centre sector and have published an Australian Data Centre Forecast Report.

The report estimates Australia's current operational data centre capacity at 1.5GW and projects it will reach 3.2GW by 2030. It also highlights a central concern for policymakers and planners: not all early-stage projects are built, which can distort expectations of future demand.

Australia has become a larger data centre market in Asia Pacific in recent years as demand for digital infrastructure has risen. The collaboration aims to give industry participants, investors, government bodies and utilities a shared set of market figures and forecasts as debate grows over energy use, planning and investment.

Under the arrangement, Data Centres Australia will use DC Byte's research in its work with members and policymakers. As the official market intelligence partner, DC Byte will also provide briefings and insight sessions for the industry body's members.

Forecast focus

A central finding in the report is the phased nature of data centre development. Projects often appear in pipelines long before financing, planning approvals, electricity connections and construction are secured. This creates a gap between announced projects and built capacity.

The issue has become more significant as governments and network operators assess the infrastructure needed to support artificial intelligence workloads, cloud services and broader digital demand. If too much weight is placed on speculative developments, forecasts can overstate how much data centre capacity is likely to come online.

The report describes this as "phantom demand", referring to projects that enter market discussions but do not proceed to completion. For policymakers, the distinction matters because power supply, land use planning and investment decisions can be shaped by assumptions about future build-outs.

Data Centres Australia, the sector's peak industry body, said the partnership is intended to improve the quality of discussion around those assumptions. By combining its national industry network with DC Byte's research base, it aims to strengthen understanding of the sector across government and industry.

Belinda Dennett, Chief Executive Officer of Data Centres Australia, linked the issue directly to policymaking and infrastructure planning.

"Australia has a significant opportunity to position as a global hub for AI infrastructure investment and sustainable data centre development. One of the challenges we keep hearing from policy makers, utilities and planners is around forecasting. Forecasting requires accurate data informed by first-hand, on-the-ground intelligence," Dennett said.

Dennett said the two organisations wanted to establish a more reliable baseline for discussion of the market.

"We are delighted to announce a formal partnership between Data Centres Australia and DC Byte, the world's leading data centre market intelligence firm, to provide credible data on Australia's data centre landscape and growth projection," she said.

"We believe making this data widely available to policy-makers and stakeholders will ground commentary and policy discussion in fact, and result in better outcomes for the industry and for Australia," Dennett said.

Market context

The report's estimate of 1.5GW of operational capacity suggests Australia has moved beyond a niche infrastructure segment. The projection to 3.2GW by 2030 points to continued expansion, but growth is expected to be uneven and dependent on practical development milestones rather than headline announcements alone.

That message is likely to resonate with electricity providers and planning authorities, which face increasing pressure to determine where data centre growth will occur and how quickly it will materialise. Energy availability has become a central issue for the sector as operators seek sites with reliable supply and governments examine the broader economic case for digital infrastructure investment.

DC Byte said the partnership would give it a larger role in industry discussions in a market of growing regional significance. The company, which tracks more than 8,000 data centres globally, is positioning its Australian work around independent analysis of development trends and future capacity.

James Murphy, Managing Director APAC at DC Byte, said clearer visibility was needed as the sector expanded.

"As data centres become more important to Australia's digital future, having clear visibility into the market matters. We're pleased to partner with Data Centres Australia to provide independent market intelligence that supports more informed planning and decision-making across industry and the wider ecosystem," Murphy said.

"DC Byte looks forward to further collaboration as both organisations continue to champion reliable insight and evidence-based planning within Australia's digital infrastructure ecosystem," he said.

The report's core figures underscore both the scale of the opportunity and the uncertainty attached to it: Australia has 1.5GW of operational data centre capacity today and is projected to reach 3.2GW by 2030, but the path to that total will depend on which projects move from proposal to operation.