Story image

IDC: Tablets stay dead, notebooks keep head above water

06 Dec 2018

Unit shipments for the global personal computing devices market, comprised of traditional PCs (desktops, notebooks and workstations) and tablets, is expected to decline 3.9% in 2018, according to the latest forecast from the IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker.

This contraction is expected to continue throughout the forecast period as the market further shrinks to 378.3 million units shipped in 2022 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.8%.

The forecast incorporates an updated set of assumptions, which reflect both areas of growth as well as concern.

Tablets, once hailed as the biggest threat to notebooks, once again saw disappointing numbers in the third quarter of 2018 and the outlook has been scaled back compared to the previous forecast.

More specifically, slate tablets have been in decline since 2015 and are expected to contract over the five-year forecast with a CAGR of -5.8%.

Even though the pace of the slate decline has slowed, continued pressure from smartphones, limited innovations, and the further increase in slate life cycles are likely to weigh against volume recovery.

The forecast for detachable tablets was also adjusted downwards toward a more conservative growth trajectory because of market consolidation and increased challenges to consumer adoption, although IDC sees improvement from some verticals like education and finance.

Traditional PCs are also expected to struggle, especially desktops, but there are brighter spots such as gaming, business PC upgrades, and an expanding presence for higher-end notebooks.

Notebooks and mobile workstations still command the largest product category volume and its share within total PCD devices are expected to grow the most through 2022.

Chrome OS, which is the dominant operating system within the global education notebook market, is expected to make gains in the consumer and business installed base.

Improvements in the Windows value proposition also means gains for higher-end systems, such as convertible notebooks filling in markets where detachable tablets have faltered.

"In the short term, the traditional PC market will see some impact from a processor shortage, which is expected to affect lower-end SKUs more significantly," says IDC personal computing devices tracker research manager Jay Chou.

"But with the commercial upgrade heading into its final stretch over the next year or so, we believe that will drive much of the focus and volume, with opportunities across the pricing spectrum."

"In 2018, we've seen the detachable category waver as important product announcements were pushed to the last quarter of the year," adds devices and displays senior research analyst Lauren Guenveur.

"For the first time since the form factor's introduction, annual volumes are expected to be down compared to the previous year. However, we expect the market will recover in 2019 as new products from Apple, Microsoft, Samsung, and Google become more readily available."

Dynatrace takes pole position in APM Magic Quadrant
It placed highest on Ability to Execute and furthest on Completeness of Vision in the 2019 Quadrant for Application Performance Monitoring (APM).
HCL and Xerox expand strategic partnership
Under the terms of the agreement, HCL will manage portions of Xerox’s shared services, including global administrative and support functions.
Avaya expands integration with Google Cloud AI
This includes embedding Google’s machine learning within conversation services for the contact centre, enabling integration of AI capabilities.
Forrester names Crowdstrike leader in incident response
The report provides an in-depth evaluation of the top 15 IR service providers across 11 criteria.
Poly appoints new A/NZ managing director, Andy Hurt
“We’re excited to be bringing together two established pioneers in audio and video technology to be moving forward and one business – Poly."
Gartner: Local server revenue up by a quarter, shipments down
In Australia, server revenue increased 24.7% in 4Q18, while shipments declined 5.3%.
HPE launches 'right mix' hybrid cloud assessment tool
HPE has launched an ‘industry-first assessment software’ to help businesses work out the right mix of hybrid cloud for their needs.
IDC: Innovative wearable use cases drive double-digit growth
Wristbands are set to lose their dominance as hearables and industrial applications keep the wearables market moving forward.